March 17, 2011: Scientists at Tel Aviv University have created a new tool to help understand the patterns of ancient earthquakes.The “fossil seismograph” was invented by Professor Shmuel Marco of TAU’s Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences in the Raymond and Beverly Sackler Faculty of Exact Sciences.

Marco developed the tool with departmental colleague Professor Eyal Hefetz and doctoral student Nadav Wetzer.In an article published in the journal Geology, Marco stated the invention was inspired by a strange “wave” phenomenon he studied in disturbed sediment in the Dead Sea region.

The layers of mud were originally stratified in a very stable manner. However, heavier sediment now appears to have been pulled up into the lighter sediment, he explained. The researchers theorize that the physics governing the sediment patterns is similar to that found in clouds and sea waves, but those found in rocks are caused by earthquakes. They called this the “Kelvin-Helmholtz Instability”; a theory of turbulence in fluids.

The new tool, developed with input from geologists and physicists, is relevant to areas where earthquakes affect bodies of water – like the West Coast of the United States, or the north-eastern coast of Japan, where an 8.9-magnitude earthquake triggered a 30-foot tsunami last week.

“We’ve expanded the window of observation beyond 100 years, to create, if you will, a ‘fossil seismograph,’” Marco stated, but added the tool is only relevant in earthquake zones that intersect with bodies of water such as lakes or the sea. It can help engineers understand what’s at risk when they plan new hydroelectric power plants, an essential bit of wisdom given the tragic events in Japan this week.

In July 1927, the northern Dead Sea area – Israel’s major earthquake-prone area – suffered a major quake that left nearly 300 people dead. Prior to that, the city of Tzfat, in the Galilee, was largely wiped out in 1837 when an earthquake rocked the area; 5,000 people were killed there, and another several hundred in Tiberias.

Earthquake researchers say that statistically, another big quake should be feared in Israel within the coming years – including now. In recent years, the northern Dead Sea region was hit by a 4.4 quake in November 2007, and a 5.3 rocker in February 2004. In terms of statistics and probabilities, however, a larger one is still expected.

Voices TV – Earthquake Drill

Given that Israel has not had a major earthquake in nearly 84 years, the Ministry of National Infrastructures is waging a campaign for earthquake preparedness. Films of bookshelves crashing down atop baby cribs and detailed instructions are part of it. The Infrastructures Ministry information campaign is currently running on the internet and other media. “Don’t let an earthquake catch you unready,” it warns threateningly. “Home is not always a safe place. A strong earthquake in Israel is just a question of time, and it is liable to cause the destruction of many homes in Israel. Make sure today that your home meets earthquake readiness standards, and that all family members know how to behave when one hits.”

The Ministry’s website explains that though earthquakes cannot be forecast in advance, “there are a number of ways in which we can prepare for them, prevent loss of life and to significantly reduce property damage.” One way is to make sure that one’s house or apartment building meets earthquake construction standards. In general, buildings built before 1980 do not – and these include, of course, a large number of buildings in many cities and towns throughout Israel. These can be strengthened and fortified, “and the responsibility for such is primarily upon us, the citizens.”

In Judea and Samaria, where most homes have been built since 1980, this particular problem is not acute.

In addition, precautions should be taken to ensure that even homes that do not collapse are earthquake-safe. The Ministry’s website states that one should not have shelves or heavy objects above beds; bookcases, air conditioners and the like should be properly fastened to walls, heavy objects should not be stored high up, and the like. “It is also advisable to have on hand a supply of food and water for emergencies, a first-aid kit, a radio, emergency lighting and baby equipment, as well as copies of essential documents.”

The Ministry also has ideas for family earthquake-drills: “Decide in advance, together with all immediate family members… where your ‘safe place’ during an earthquake is going to be. In an apartment building a safe place could be the Protected Space (“Mamad”) or the staircase, and in a one-story home it could be outdoors. Agree on a specific place outdoors where the family should gather after the quake. Make sure that all family members know where the main switches are for electricity, gas and water so that they can turn them off after an earthquake.”

A warning for an apocalyptic situation could result from the next earthquake to hit Israel in which millions of apartments and thousands of public buildings could collapse. According to the ACBI, a strong earthquake could lead to tens of thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands of homeless. Earthquakes have occurred in Israel on the average of once every 80 years in recent centuries.

In addition to the major Biblical earthquakes, two major earthquakes occurred in Israel during the last two centuries. The first earthquake, in January 1837, killed some 5,000 people, destroyed the city of Tzfat and damaged nearby Arab villages, while the second one, in July 1927, killed over 500 people, and caused heavy damage in Jericho, Shechem (Nablus), Jerusalem and Hevron. An earthquake centered in Lebanon was felt in Israel and Syria.